Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.529453 1.598842 1.671101 1.752229 1.841104 1.935879 2.045088
2026-01-25 1.422249 1.511505 1.607461 1.719018 1.846101 1.987549 2.158605
2026-02-01 1.357305 1.460247 1.573601 1.708987 1.868102 2.051576 2.282868
2026-02-08 1.304084 1.416521 1.542702 1.696738 1.882524 2.103326 2.392102
2026-02-15 1.258420 1.377702 1.513679 1.682752 1.891261 2.145747 2.489867
2026-02-22 1.229083 1.355568 1.501917 1.687134 1.920597 2.213255 2.622896
2026-03-01 1.183747 1.312097 1.462112 1.654295 1.900267 2.214538 2.665689
2026-03-08 1.148229 1.278728 1.432718 1.632309 1.891572 2.229102 2.726132
2026-03-15 1.119968 1.252887 1.411183 1.618695 1.892205 2.255034 2.803405
2026-03-22 1.110803 1.249745 1.417164 1.639864 1.939036 2.345950 2.983203
2026-03-29 1.105941 1.251458 1.428898 1.668497 1.996841 2.455518 3.202541
2026-04-05 1.085792 1.233305 1.414595 1.661854 2.005284 2.493937 3.312185
2026-04-12 1.069472 1.219974 1.406595 1.664066 2.027316 2.555524 3.470301
2026-04-19 1.040468 1.189702 1.375669 1.633896 2.001449 2.542621 3.498557
2026-04-26 1.021856 1.172144 1.360682 1.624772 2.005251 2.575222 3.610554
2026-05-03 1.003491 1.154368 1.344786 1.613629 2.005272 2.601451 3.713490
2026-05-10 0.985481 1.136563 1.328276 1.600900 2.002100 2.621980 3.807654
2026-05-17 0.975011 1.128195 1.323935 1.604889 2.023873 2.684138 3.990974
2026-05-24 0.952038 1.102989 1.296390 1.574974 1.992559 2.655703 3.986205
2026-05-31 0.933744 1.083559 1.276172 1.554920 1.975579 2.650470 4.029541
2026-06-07 0.919066 1.068582 1.261600 1.542491 1.969819 2.663923 4.114470
2026-06-14 0.916715 1.069766 1.268903 1.561814 2.014472 2.767841 4.415659
2026-06-21 0.916852 1.074184 1.280647 1.587917 2.071131 2.897933 4.806717